The NYC Mayoral Primary: 5 Paths to Power. Who Leads Now and Who Might Lead the Nation Next?

Photo credit: IQ INC.

Ranked based on current polling, experience, and viability in the Democratic primary:

Strengths: Former Governor (2011–2021) with extensive executive experience managing crises like Hurricane Sandy and COVID-19; currently leads polls at ~35% first-choice, crossing 50% after ranked-choice rounds
Weaknesses: Carries baggage from prior scandals (sexual harassment, nursing-home controversy); criticized for dodging accountability.
Support: Backed by moderate institutions and centrist donors including Mike Bloomberg.

Strengths: Surging in polls (23–23%), strong progressive base — ranked second in RCV. Proposals include rent freezes, fare-free buses, universal childcare
Weaknesses: Limited executive experience; questions about policy feasibility.
Support: Strong progressive endorsements from figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the Working Families Party.

Strengths: Queens-born City Council Speaker since 2022; shepherded zoning reforms and affordable housing bills. Attracted key Hasidic community endorsements. Polls around ~8% first choice.
Weaknesses: Lower name recognition citywide; fundraising still catching up.
Support: High-profile coalitions forming from Mamdani’s camp to help her qualify for matching funds

Strengths: NYC Comptroller with fiscal acumen; advocates progressive economics and cultural investment.
Weaknesses: Polling in single digits (~11% first-choice) ; overshadowed by frontrunners.

Strengths: State Senator with strong housing agenda—aims for 700,000 new homes via zoning reform.
Weaknesses: Low visibility and poll numbers; still building name recognition.

Assessment as 2028 Presidential Contenders

Ranking factors include national appeal, experience, ideological fit, and electability beyond NYC.

Pros: Extensive statewide and federal-level governance experience; known for tough crisis management.
Cons: National salience of past scandals could hinder 2028 viability; moderate base may not be energizing but appeals broadly.

Pros: Represents energized, progressive youth wing; strong grassroots following; compelling narrative as multicultural, working-class candidate.
Cons: Lack of broad executive experience; progressive platform may not resonate with general electorate.

Pros: Legislative track record with zoning and community outreach; strong leader in diverse Queens with interfaith and grassroots coalition-building.
Cons: No citywide or statewide executive experience; limited national profile beyond NYC.

Pros: Solid policy record as comptroller; bridge between progressive and moderate wings.
Cons: Less visibility outside NYC; may struggle to compete nationally without higher office credentials.

Summary Table

Rank	Mayoral Candidate	Mayor Viability	2028 Pres. Viability
1	Andrew Cuomo	Front-runner; risk due to scandals	Experienced but polarizing
2	Zohran Mamdani	Rising progressive surge	Energized progressive front-runner
3	Adrienne Adams	Strong coalition builder; dark-horse	Promising legislator with local reach
4	Brad Lander	Solid policy focus; moderate polling	Policy credible, needs scaling
5	Zellnor Myrie	Housing-focused underdog	Early stage, needs profile building

Conclusion

Mayor Race: Cuomo currently leads thanks to institutional support and poll strength; Mamdani is the key challenger energized by youth and progressive voters. Adams, Lander and Myrie round out top-five but face uphill battles in RCV competition.
Presidential Prospects: Cuomo likely has the strongest structures to pursue higher office, though past controversies may limit appeal. Mamdani energizes a growing progressive base but needs broader appeal and executive experience. Lander, Adams, and Myrie remain potential voices but have limited paths to national prominence by 2028.